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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9511740608014016018079101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+20
Endgame+22
Fouls+22
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave0
3Coral scored#5
16Coral points23
16Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +13
11Coral scored#12
39Coral points42
1Processor algae#2
1Net algae#2
6Processor points12
4Net points8
10Algae points20
49Total teleop62
Reef
6L4#8
4L3#3
3L2#3
1L1 · trough#3
16Game pieces#21
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +22
0Foul points0
79Total score101

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.00.8
35.334.5
Auto10.0
Teleop24.4
End8.5
blue by 22.5
65.50.1
60.360.1
Auto16.8
Teleop40.7
End8.0
Second
1720
#21
33.80.8
26.525.7
Auto6.4
Teleop20.2
End7.2
red by 0.5
33.30.1
31.831.7
Auto4.6
Teleop27.1
End1.7
Third
7657
#12
29.90.8
29.728.9
Auto6.2
Teleop20.8
End2.9
red by 18.5
11.40.1
10.910.8
Auto5.5
Teleop4.5
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned74%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed14%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
80%Barge oddsEarned73%Barge oddsEarned