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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions98580501508793

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
Teleop+4
Endgame+6
Fouls+6
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave9
3Coral scored#0
17Coral points0
26Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +21
12Coral scored#16
43Coral points58
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#2
6Processor points12
8Net points8
14Algae points20
57Total teleop78
Reef
7L4#4
3L3#4
3L2#4
2L1 · trough#4
18Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +6
0Foul points0
87Total score93

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
59.20.0
53.453.4
Auto17.0
Teleop37.5
End4.7
red by 26.8
5188
#18
32.42.3
21.824.1
Auto8.6
Teleop20.4
End3.4
Second
4008
#20
22.00.0
15.315.3
Auto6.0
Teleop12.5
End3.5
blue by 8.0
2867
#14
30.02.3
21.123.3
Auto5.5
Teleop23.1
End1.5
Third
8564
#26
14.30.0
17.917.9
Auto4.8
Teleop7.1
End2.4
blue by 6.4
9554
#11
20.72.3
16.118.3
Auto4.6
Teleop15.3
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
74%Auto oddsEarned38%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsMissed8%Barge oddsMissed