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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16745010015020025019751

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+29Auto
+122Teleop
+140Endgame
+146Fouls
AutonomousRed +29
0Leave3
9Coral scored#2
44Coral points12
44Total auto15
TeleoperatedRed +93
20Coral scored#4
73Coral points16
3Processor algae#1
8Net algae#2
18Processor points6
32Net points8
50Algae points14
123Total teleop30
Reef
11L4#1
7L3#2
8L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
40Game pieces#9
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +146
6Foul points0
197Total score51

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
868
#1
78.93.4
59.863.2
Auto21.0
Teleop48.5
End9.4
red by 49.0
7657
#12
29.90.4
28.928.5
Auto6.2
Teleop20.8
End2.9
Second
65.53.4
60.163.5
Auto16.8
Teleop40.7
End8.0
red by 41.9
9790
#15
23.60.4
17.617.2
Auto7.1
Teleop13.6
End2.8
Third
2197
#22
23.93.4
20.523.8
Auto4.6
Teleop16.5
End2.7
red by 12.5
11.40.4
10.810.3
Auto5.5
Teleop4.5
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned32%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
28%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
97%Barge oddsEarned43%Barge oddsMissed