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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions139695010015020012929

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+90Teleop
+100Endgame
+100Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave9
4Coral scored#1
20Coral points3
26Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +76
17Coral scored#3
61Coral points9
2Processor algae#0
4Net algae#1
12Processor points0
16Net points4
28Algae points4
89Total teleop13
Reef
7L4#2
4L3#1
6L2#1
4L1 · trough#0
27Game pieces#5
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +100
0Foul points0
129Total score29

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.40.1
53.053.1
Auto17.4
Teleop35.9
End7.2
red by 27.1
33.33.0
31.728.7
Auto4.6
Teleop27.1
End1.7
Second
53.20.1
45.745.8
Auto12.2
Teleop31.4
End9.6
red by 34.9
8430
#24
18.23.0
22.619.7
Auto5.7
Teleop9.4
End3.1
Third
9491
#17
25.80.1
23.523.6
Auto5.9
Teleop19.2
End0.7
red by 8.2
3559
#10
17.63.0
16.413.5
Auto4.0
Teleop8.8
End4.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned70%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
37%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned41%Barge oddsMissed