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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13112180100140160180200178105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+19Auto
+45Teleop
+67Endgame
+73Fouls
AutonomousRed +19
0Leave6
9Coral scored#4
44Coral points19
44Total auto25
TeleoperatedRed +26
18Coral scored#16
64Coral points58
3Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
18Processor points6
20Net points12
38Algae points18
102Total teleop76
Reef
12L4#7
7L3#4
4L2#5
4L1 · trough#4
35Game pieces#24
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +73
6Foul points0
178Total score105

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.43.0
53.156.0
Auto17.4
Teleop35.9
End7.2
blue by 5.1
65.51.0
63.562.5
Auto16.8
Teleop40.7
End8.0
Second
234
#7
46.93.0
42.445.4
Auto11.5
Teleop28.8
End6.6
red by 21.1
9491
#17
25.81.0
23.622.6
Auto5.9
Teleop19.2
End0.7
Third
5188
#18
32.43.0
25.828.8
Auto8.6
Teleop20.4
End3.4
red by 8.5
2197
#22
23.91.0
24.323.2
Auto4.6
Teleop16.5
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
39%Coral oddsEarned21%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
66%Barge oddsEarned89%Barge oddsMissed