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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions144945020015897

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+27Teleop
+49Endgame
+61Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave0
6Coral scored#6
28Coral points30
37Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +20
15Coral scored#13
53Coral points45
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
18Processor points6
12Net points12
30Algae points18
83Total teleop63
Reef
7L4#8
5L3#6
6L2#4
3L1 · trough#1
27Game pieces#23
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +61
12Foul points0
158Total score97

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.51.2
59.660.7
Auto16.8
Teleop40.7
End8.0
red by 5.1
60.40.3
55.856.1
Auto17.4
Teleop35.9
End7.2
Second
53.21.2
48.549.6
Auto12.2
Teleop31.4
End9.6
red by 26.1
27.00.3
25.125.4
Auto7.1
Teleop14.4
End5.5
Third
9554
#11
20.71.2
20.721.8
Auto4.6
Teleop15.3
End0.8
red by 9.3
11.40.3
11.411.7
Auto5.5
Teleop4.5
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned80%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
33%Coral oddsMissed39%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
93%Barge oddsEarned79%Barge oddsMissed