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Red208
901553.8
394079.0
11187.3
Blue218
183376.1
12575.8
376775.2
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions226231150200250300208218

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+25
0Teleop0
Endgame+10
Fouls+10
AutonomousBlue +25
9Leave6
3Coral scored#8
13Coral points41
22Total auto47
TeleoperatedRed +25
35Coral scored#24
126Coral points85
5Processor algae#5
6Net algae#10
30Processor points30
24Net points40
54Algae points70
180Total teleop155
Reef
14L4#14
7L3#7
9L2#5
8L1 · trough#6
49Game pieces#47
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
0Foul points0
208Total score218

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
111
#35
87.31.4
85.784.3
Auto14.7
Teleop63.1
End9.6
red by 11.3
1833
#22
76.11.2
71.370.1
Auto19.2
Teleop46.9
End10.0
Second
3940
#42
79.01.4
77.976.5
Auto15.8
Teleop53.8
End9.5
red by 3.1
125
#23
75.81.2
79.978.7
Auto21.0
Teleop46.0
End8.8
Third
9015
#50
53.81.4
54.352.9
Auto11.5
Teleop39.4
End3.0
blue by 21.3
75.21.2
73.071.8
Auto18.5
Teleop47.4
End9.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned99%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
97%Coral oddsEarned66%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
92%Barge oddsMissed99%Barge oddsEarned