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Red237
283274.6
249172.3
804486.0
Blue185
3376.6
571266.2
464655.8
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions251225100150200300350237185

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
+36Teleop
+56Endgame
+52Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
6Leave0
3Coral scored#7
17Coral points37
23Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +50
33Coral scored#21
120Coral points74
5Processor algae#3
9Net algae#11
30Processor points18
36Net points44
66Algae points62
186Total teleop136
Reef
13L4#11
7L3#8
9L2#5
7L1 · trough#4
50Game pieces#42
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +52
2Foul points6
237Total score185

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8044
#21
86.00.3
89.689.3
Auto17.8
Teleop57.9
End10.4
red by 9.4
33
#39
76.63.1
77.774.6
Auto16.9
Teleop51.5
End8.2
Second
2832
#46
74.60.3
69.369.0
Auto12.9
Teleop52.6
End9.0
red by 8.4
5712
#24
66.23.1
74.371.3
Auto9.4
Teleop47.1
End9.6
Third
2491
#38
72.30.3
69.268.9
Auto15.4
Teleop47.4
End9.4
red by 16.6
4646
#54
55.83.1
61.858.7
Auto11.9
Teleop40.2
End3.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
99%Coral oddsEarned68%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
88%Barge oddsEarned95%Barge oddsMissed