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Red205
402881.9
571266.2
23450.3
Blue184
353878.2
901553.8
102446.4
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions228193100150250300205184

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+13Teleop
+27Endgame
+21Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave3
6Coral scored#7
31Coral points37
37Total auto40
TeleoperatedRed +16
27Coral scored#17
98Coral points62
4Processor algae#6
5Net algae#7
24Processor points36
20Net points28
44Algae points64
142Total teleop126
Reef
11L4#10
11L3#6
5L2#3
6L1 · trough#5
42Game pieces#37
BargeRed +14
26Cage & park12
26Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +21
0Foul points6
205Total score184

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4028
#17
81.90.9
84.383.4
Auto16.5
Teleop57.6
End7.9
red by 3.7
3538
#27
78.21.2
82.181.0
Auto16.5
Teleop56.0
End5.7
Second
5712
#24
66.20.9
71.870.9
Auto9.4
Teleop47.1
End9.6
red by 12.3
9015
#50
53.81.2
54.653.4
Auto11.5
Teleop39.4
End3.0
Third
234
#47
50.30.9
51.250.3
Auto11.7
Teleop29.2
End9.4
red by 3.9
1024
#45
46.41.2
47.946.7
Auto8.3
Teleop32.3
End5.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
95%Coral oddsMissed79%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
93%Barge oddsEarned53%Barge oddsMissed