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Red279
176887.8
86885.2
173276.5
Blue235
449987.3
590754.7
249172.3
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions271224150200250300350279235

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+32Teleop
+42Endgame
+44Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave3
10Coral scored#8
51Coral points40
57Total auto43
TeleoperatedRed +18
36Coral scored#27
130Coral points96
3Processor algae#7
9Net algae#7
18Processor points42
36Net points28
54Algae points70
184Total teleop166
Reef
12L4#8
15L3#12
11L2#9
8L1 · trough#6
58Game pieces#49
BargeRed +10
36Cage & park26
36Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +44
2Foul points0
279Total score235

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1768
#11
87.81.6
84.185.7
Auto21.8
Teleop54.9
End11.1
red by 0.5
4499
#13
87.30.9
85.886.8
Auto20.3
Teleop55.0
End11.9
Second
868
#29
85.21.6
80.882.3
Auto21.7
Teleop52.0
End11.5
red by 12.9
2491
#38
72.30.9
69.970.8
Auto15.4
Teleop47.4
End9.4
Third
1732
#40
76.51.6
77.478.9
Auto15.2
Teleop50.1
End11.2
red by 21.8
5907
#52
54.70.9
54.255.1
Auto7.9
Teleop44.1
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
99%Coral oddsEarned70%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
99%Barge oddsEarned84%Barge oddsEarned