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Red110
441630.8
565428.4
974030.9
Blue142
474461.1
706721.8
563552.5
8%Model gave it92%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8012450100150110142

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+42
Endgame+32
Fouls+32
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave9
4Coral scored#5
19Coral points23
25Total auto32
TeleoperatedBlue +35
16Coral scored#17
57Coral points60
1Processor algae#3
2Net algae#7
6Processor points18
8Net points28
14Algae points46
71Total teleop106
Reef
7L4#10
5L3#4
4L2#4
4L1 · trough#4
23Game pieces#32
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +32
0Foul points0
110Total score142

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9740
#44
30.91.0
28.129.1
Auto7.9
Teleop21.9
End1.1
blue by 30.2
4744
#10
61.11.3
47.248.6
Auto15.7
Teleop40.8
End4.6
Second
4416
#31
30.81.0
22.723.8
Auto9.4
Teleop17.6
End3.8
blue by 21.7
52.51.3
45.146.4
Auto12.5
Teleop31.5
End8.4
Third
5654
#40
28.41.0
28.529.6
Auto6.5
Teleop15.7
End6.2
red by 6.6
7067
#42
21.81.3
16.618.0
Auto5.8
Teleop13.1
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
69%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
21%Coral oddsMissed26%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
50%Barge oddsEarned56%Barge oddsMissed