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Red177
703965.8
674051.0
308343.3
Blue182
321130.6
595164.9
555441.9
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions139135110120130150160170180177182

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+17
Teleop+1
Endgame+11
Fouls+5
AutonomousBlue +17
0Leave6
6Coral scored#8
30Coral points41
30Total auto47
TeleoperatedRed +16
23Coral scored#20
83Coral points73
4Processor algae#3
5Net algae#5
24Processor points18
20Net points20
44Algae points38
127Total teleop111
Reef
12L4#11
5L3#7
6L2#6
6L1 · trough#4
38Game pieces#36
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +5
6Foul points0
177Total score182

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7039
#11
65.82.8
53.556.3
Auto17.8
Teleop38.9
End9.2
red by 0.9
64.93.7
62.165.8
Auto18.5
Teleop36.6
End9.8
Second
6740
#14
51.02.8
44.046.8
Auto10.8
Teleop35.7
End4.6
red by 9.1
5554
#21
41.93.7
37.441.0
Auto12.1
Teleop26.2
End3.6
Third
3083
#33
43.32.8
31.634.4
Auto6.8
Teleop34.6
End1.8
red by 12.6
3211
#16
30.63.7
27.230.9
Auto8.2
Teleop20.9
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
17%Coral oddsMissed18%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
66%Barge oddsEarned68%Barge oddsEarned