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Red143
209653.2
433840.4
555441.9
Blue103
784543.3
974030.9
157753.5
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions137119100150200143103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+2Auto
+8Teleop
+26Endgame
+40Fouls
AutonomousRed +2
6Leave3
3Coral scored#3
16Coral points17
22Total auto20
TeleoperatedRed +6
16Coral scored#11
59Coral points39
2Processor algae#3
3Net algae#5
12Processor points18
12Net points20
24Algae points38
83Total teleop77
Reef
5L4#6
6L3#3
4L2#4
4L1 · trough#1
24Game pieces#22
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +40
14Foul points0
143Total score103

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2096
#19
53.20.3
51.251.5
Auto13.4
Teleop36.1
End3.6
blue by 0.4
1577
#15
53.50.4
41.841.4
Auto11.4
Teleop36.0
End6.1
Second
5554
#21
41.90.3
41.041.4
Auto12.1
Teleop26.2
End3.6
blue by 1.4
7845
#18
43.30.4
37.837.4
Auto8.4
Teleop30.0
End4.8
Third
4338
#17
40.40.3
32.032.3
Auto8.9
Teleop25.8
End5.7
red by 9.5
9740
#44
30.90.4
29.128.7
Auto7.9
Teleop21.9
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsEarned81%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
33%Coral oddsMissed32%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
60%Barge oddsEarned63%Barge oddsMissed