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Red142
338823.8
466124.8
194268.4
Blue130
706721.8
157456.7
193740.4
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1191280200300400142130

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+10Teleop
0Endgame0
+12Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave9
7Coral scored#4
33Coral points21
33Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +7
16Coral scored#14
59Coral points50
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#2
6Processor points12
12Net points8
18Algae points20
77Total teleop70
Reef
9L4#8
5L3#4
5L2#4
4L1 · trough#2
27Game pieces#22
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
18Foul points6
142Total score130

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1942
#13
68.41.4
60.862.2
Auto17.7
Teleop44.1
End6.6
red by 11.7
1574
#30
56.70.9
54.255.0
Auto19.8
Teleop31.2
End5.6
Second
4661
#35
24.81.4
21.022.4
Auto4.1
Teleop18.7
End2.1
blue by 15.6
1937
#27
40.40.9
38.739.5
Auto6.0
Teleop27.4
End7.0
Third
3388
#36
23.81.4
21.522.9
Auto6.5
Teleop13.6
End3.6
red by 1.9
7067
#42
21.80.9
18.018.8
Auto5.8
Teleop13.1
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsMissed91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
46%Coral oddsMissed27%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
50%Barge oddsEarned44%Barge oddsEarned