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Red125
706721.8
306546.4
784543.3
Blue141
157630.4
308343.3
157753.5
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1131276080100140160180200125141

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+2
Teleop+20
Endgame+10
Fouls+16
AutonomousBlue +2
6Leave9
4Coral scored#3
18Coral points17
24Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +18
14Coral scored#23
51Coral points81
3Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
18Processor points6
16Net points16
34Algae points22
85Total teleop103
Reef
7L4#11
5L3#5
3L2#5
3L1 · trough#5
25Game pieces#31
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +16
2Foul points8
125Total score141

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3065
#25
46.41.0
41.842.8
Auto7.7
Teleop37.6
End1.1
blue by 7.1
1577
#15
53.50.9
44.045.0
Auto11.4
Teleop36.0
End6.1
Second
7845
#18
43.31.0
38.839.8
Auto8.4
Teleop30.0
End4.8
red by 0.1
3083
#33
43.30.9
39.740.6
Auto6.8
Teleop34.6
End1.8
Third
7067
#42
21.81.0
18.919.9
Auto5.8
Teleop13.1
End2.9
blue by 8.6
1576
#38
30.40.9
26.727.7
Auto8.4
Teleop20.6
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsEarned71%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
30%Coral oddsMissed17%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
39%Barge oddsEarned32%Barge oddsMissed