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Red149
433840.4
432051.8
458643.4
Blue127
711242.7
308343.3
706721.8
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1409750150200149127

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+36Teleop
+34Endgame
+22Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
6Leave6
7Coral scored#2
34Coral points10
40Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +12
19Coral scored#15
69Coral points53
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
12Processor points12
12Net points16
24Algae points28
93Total teleop81
Reef
7L4#7
6L3#4
7L2#3
6L1 · trough#3
31Game pieces#23
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +22
2Foul points14
149Total score127

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4320
#29
51.81.5
46.948.4
Auto12.0
Teleop35.5
End4.4
red by 8.6
3083
#33
43.31.1
40.641.7
Auto6.8
Teleop34.6
End1.8
Second
4586
#23
43.41.5
37.839.4
Auto9.7
Teleop32.4
End1.4
red by 0.7
7112
#34
42.71.1
36.637.7
Auto13.2
Teleop21.9
End7.6
Third
4338
#17
40.41.5
39.641.1
Auto8.9
Teleop25.8
End5.7
red by 18.6
7067
#42
21.81.1
19.120.2
Auto5.8
Teleop13.1
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
71%Auto oddsEarned74%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
44%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
67%Barge oddsEarned34%Barge oddsEarned