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Red199
474461.1
209653.2
157456.7
Blue158
561467.4
563552.5
321130.6
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions178163120140200220199158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+49Teleop
+41Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
3Leave6
10Coral scored#4
51Coral points20
54Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +21
23Coral scored#21
83Coral points76
5Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
30Processor points12
16Net points20
46Algae points32
129Total teleop108
Reef
13L4#12
9L3#5
7L2#4
4L1 · trough#4
42Game pieces#32
BargeBlue +8
16Cage & park24
16Total endgame24
Penalties & totalRed +41
0Foul points0
199Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4744
#10
61.10.6
60.961.6
Auto15.7
Teleop40.8
End4.6
blue by 6.2
5614
#12
67.40.2
67.267.4
Auto21.0
Teleop37.5
End8.8
Second
1574
#30
56.70.6
56.557.2
Auto19.8
Teleop31.2
End5.6
red by 4.2
52.50.2
52.352.5
Auto12.5
Teleop31.5
End8.4
Third
2096
#19
53.20.6
53.053.6
Auto13.4
Teleop36.1
End3.6
red by 22.5
3211
#16
30.60.2
30.530.6
Auto8.2
Teleop20.9
End1.6