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Red155
466116.7
561465.4
433824.7
Blue137
973822.5
306538.2
308325.0
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1139050100150200155137

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+6Teleop
+20Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave0
4Coral scored#2
21Coral points9
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +15
23Coral scored#25
83Coral points90
1Processor algae#3
5Net algae#4
6Processor points18
20Net points16
26Algae points34
109Total teleop124
Reef
7L4#12
11L3#6
4L2#6
5L1 · trough#3
33Game pieces#34
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +18
0Foul points2
155Total score137

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.42.4
55.858.2
Auto16.8
Teleop38.6
End9.9
red by 27.1
3065
#16
38.22.0
34.636.6
Auto6.0
Teleop31.1
End1.1
Second
4338
#14
24.72.4
26.228.6
Auto4.2
Teleop19.1
End1.3
blue by 0.4
3083
#11
25.02.0
22.224.2
Auto2.9
Teleop20.7
End1.4
Third
16.72.4
15.517.9
Auto3.3
Teleop11.2
End2.2
blue by 5.8
9738
#17
22.52.0
24.926.9
Auto1.7
Teleop19.3
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
73%Auto oddsEarned38%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
25%Coral oddsEarned7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned28%Barge oddsMissed