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Red123
930412.0
817529.0
169072.8
Blue49
466116.7
592811.4
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10957015020025012349

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+68Teleop
+68Endgame
+74Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
0Leave0
3Coral scored#2
13Coral points9
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +64
21Coral scored#6
76Coral points22
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
12Processor points6
8Net points4
20Algae points10
96Total teleop32
Reef
10L4#3
4L3#3
6L2#1
4L1 · trough#1
28Game pieces#10
Bargelevel
2Cage & park2
2Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +74
12Foul points6
123Total score49

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.81.7
53.154.8
Auto21.2
Teleop46.1
End5.5
red by 56.1
16.71.7
17.615.9
Auto3.3
Teleop11.2
End2.2
Second
8175
#15
29.01.7
19.421.1
Auto4.0
Teleop22.5
End2.5
red by 17.6
5928
#26
11.41.7
17.716.0
Auto4.6
Teleop5.3
End1.5
Third
9304
#19
12.01.7
17.218.9
Auto3.4
Teleop7.6
End0.9
red by 2.2
9.73.9
12.216.1
Auto2.4
Teleop8.4
End-1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
61%Auto oddsMissed36%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
39%Barge oddsMissed29%Barge oddsMissed