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Red101
308325.0
194312.4
157737.9
Blue82
595155.0
93036.7
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions74672040608010012014010182

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
+9Teleop
+13Endgame
+19Fouls
AutonomousBlue +8
0Leave0
2Coral scored#4
12Coral points20
12Total auto20
TeleoperatedRed +17
14Coral scored#13
51Coral points48
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
12Processor points6
16Net points8
28Algae points14
79Total teleop62
Reef
5L4#5
4L3#6
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#4
22Game pieces#20
BargeRed +4
4Cage & park0
4Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +19
6Foul points0
101Total score82

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.92.1
34.236.3
Auto7.3
Teleop28.6
End2.0
blue by 17.1
55.01.4
49.951.3
Auto14.1
Teleop30.6
End10.3
Second
3083
#11
25.02.3
24.226.5
Auto2.9
Teleop20.7
End1.4
red by 15.3
9.71.4
8.49.7
Auto2.4
Teleop8.4
End-1.0
Third
1943
#24
12.42.1
8.210.3
Auto1.8
Teleop10.8
End-0.1
red by 5.8
9303
#29
6.71.4
5.36.7
Auto2.5
Teleop4.2
End-0.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
22%Auto oddsEarned50%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
21%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsMissed40%Barge oddsMissed