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Red114
263050.5
308325.0
673825.6
Blue108
561465.4
930412.0
563539.4
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions105123050150200250114108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+4Teleop
Endgame+6
+6Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave3
3Coral scored#4
17Coral points19
26Total auto22
Teleoperatedlevel
13Coral scored#13
46Coral points48
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
12Processor points6
12Net points16
24Algae points22
70Total teleop70
Reef
7L4#8
3L3#4
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
21Game pieces#22
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +6
12Foul points0
114Total score108

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.50.1
46.846.7
Auto15.6
Teleop27.6
End7.3
blue by 14.9
65.40.5
61.961.3
Auto16.8
Teleop38.6
End9.9
Second
6738
#12
25.60.1
27.026.9
Auto5.5
Teleop19.2
End0.9
blue by 13.8
39.40.5
39.639.0
Auto6.9
Teleop27.1
End5.4
Third
3083
#11
25.00.1
26.526.4
Auto2.9
Teleop20.7
End1.4
red by 13.1
9304
#19
12.00.5
10.910.4
Auto3.4
Teleop7.6
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
67%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
16%Coral oddsMissed41%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
66%Barge oddsMissed81%Barge oddsEarned