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Red126
822329.5
441618.2
194243.3
Blue114
209641.7
592811.4
306538.2
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions92105050150200126114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+5Auto
+14Teleop
+32Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousRed +5
0Leave6
4Coral scored#2
20Coral points9
20Total auto15
TeleoperatedRed +9
14Coral scored#14
52Coral points51
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
12Processor points12
24Net points16
36Algae points28
88Total teleop79
Reef
6L4#7
5L3#4
5L2#4
2L1 · trough#1
26Game pieces#22
BargeRed +18
18Cage & park0
18Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
0Foul points20
126Total score114

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.33.3
38.541.8
Auto10.9
Teleop30.9
End1.6
red by 1.6
2096
#13
41.70.3
41.141.3
Auto7.8
Teleop32.0
End1.9
Second
29.53.3
24.728.0
Auto6.8
Teleop18.3
End4.5
blue by 8.7
3065
#16
38.20.3
39.339.6
Auto6.0
Teleop31.1
End1.1
Third
4416
#10
18.23.3
16.219.5
Auto3.7
Teleop10.8
End3.6
red by 6.8
5928
#26
11.40.3
7.17.3
Auto4.6
Teleop5.3
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
65%Auto oddsEarned50%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
17%Coral oddsMissed15%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
36%Barge oddsEarned15%Barge oddsMissed