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Red128
263050.5
623013.8
595155.0
Blue111
194243.3
610420.1
157737.9
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12410250150200128111

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
Teleop+9
+9Endgame
+17Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
9Leave6
6Coral scored#1
28Coral points3
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +37
13Coral scored#17
45Coral points62
1Processor algae#3
2Net algae#4
6Processor points18
8Net points16
14Algae points34
59Total teleop96
Reef
9L4#5
6L3#5
2L2#5
2L1 · trough#3
22Game pieces#25
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +17
8Foul points0
128Total score111

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.00.1
53.653.7
Auto14.1
Teleop30.6
End10.3
red by 11.7
43.30.2
43.143.3
Auto10.9
Teleop30.9
End1.6
Second
50.50.1
49.049.1
Auto15.6
Teleop27.6
End7.3
red by 12.6
37.90.2
37.737.9
Auto7.3
Teleop28.6
End2.0
Third
6230
#20
13.80.1
13.113.2
Auto4.5
Teleop6.7
End2.5
blue by 6.3
6104
#27
20.10.2
19.920.1
Auto2.3
Teleop16.3
End1.5