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Red135
223157.0
267920.1
459037.3
Blue95
598742.5
458620.8
307536.7
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions799505015020013595

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+35Auto
+40Teleop
+40Endgame
+40Fouls
AutonomousRed +35
6Leave9
8Coral scored#0
38Coral points0
44Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +5
18Coral scored#14
65Coral points52
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#5
6Processor points6
12Net points20
18Algae points26
83Total teleop78
Reef
11L4#5
5L3#3
5L2#4
5L1 · trough#2
30Game pieces#20
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +40
4Foul points4
135Total score95

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.06.0
33.839.8
Auto16.7
Teleop33.6
End6.7
red by 14.5
5987
#12
42.50.1
32.432.5
Auto6.9
Teleop31.5
End4.1
Second
37.36.0
25.431.4
Auto11.7
Teleop23.9
End1.7
red by 0.6
3075
#11
36.70.1
32.732.8
Auto3.9
Teleop28.3
End4.4
Third
2679
#26
20.16.0
12.318.3
Auto5.1
Teleop13.8
End1.2
blue by 0.7
4586
#33
20.80.1
19.019.1
Auto2.7
Teleop17.5
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
58%Auto oddsEarned60%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsEarned7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
13%Barge oddsMissed63%Barge oddsMissed