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Red123
599060.8
561469.7
158013.1
Blue75
223049.9
157628.3
165726.7
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1288605010015020012375

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+30Teleop
+42Endgame
+48Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
9Leave9
7Coral scored#1
35Coral points7
44Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +2
10Coral scored#13
37Coral points45
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
12Processor points6
8Net points4
20Algae points10
57Total teleop55
Reef
6L4#6
7L3#4
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
21Game pieces#16
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +48
6Foul points0
123Total score75

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.70.3
69.069.3
Auto21.2
Teleop39.6
End9.0
red by 19.8
49.91.0
37.036.1
Auto13.0
Teleop31.6
End5.3
Second
60.80.5
31.131.5
Auto17.7
Teleop39.9
End3.2
red by 32.5
1576
#14
28.31.0
20.219.2
Auto4.2
Teleop22.2
End1.9
Third
1580
#32
13.10.5
12.613.1
Auto5.2
Teleop6.0
End1.9
blue by 13.7
1657
#15
26.71.0
26.625.6
Auto6.0
Teleop17.5
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned67%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
39%Coral oddsEarned9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
63%Barge oddsEarned45%Barge oddsMissed