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Red95
706716.5
306542.1
308329.7
Blue57
717712.5
321125.5
598747.2
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions102106501502009557

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+38Teleop
+26Endgame
+38Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave6
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +35
13Coral scored#7
48Coral points25
2Processor algae#0
3Net algae#3
12Processor points0
12Net points12
24Algae points12
72Total teleop37
Reef
4L4#3
6L3#2
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
20Game pieces#10
BargeBlue +12
2Cage & park14
2Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +38
12Foul points0
95Total score57

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3065
#14
42.10.6
41.240.6
Auto5.5
Teleop35.4
End1.3
blue by 5.0
5987
#10
47.22.5
43.340.8
Auto9.5
Teleop29.3
End8.3
Second
3083
#18
29.70.6
26.626.0
Auto2.2
Teleop27.1
End0.5
red by 4.2
3211
#23
25.52.5
29.226.7
Auto4.0
Teleop19.2
End2.3
Third
7067
#19
16.50.6
18.017.4
Auto4.0
Teleop11.8
End0.7
red by 3.9
7177
#28
12.52.5
17.514.9
Auto1.0
Teleop9.9
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
44%Auto oddsMissed50%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsMissed47%Barge oddsEarned