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Red77
441622.6
308329.7
474446.2
Blue127
565427.1
592825.1
333958.3
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9210240608012014016018077127

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+13
Teleop+38
Endgame+48
Fouls+50
AutonomousBlue +13
6Leave9
3Coral scored#5
14Coral points24
20Total auto33
TeleoperatedBlue +25
11Coral scored#12
41Coral points44
1Processor algae#2
1Net algae#5
6Processor points12
4Net points20
10Algae points32
51Total teleop76
Reef
6L4#5
4L3#6
2L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
16Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +50
0Foul points2
77Total score127

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
46.20.7
40.840.1
Auto13.2
Teleop31.6
End1.4
blue by 12.2
58.32.0
52.954.9
Auto14.8
Teleop37.2
End6.4
Second
3083
#18
29.70.7
25.424.7
Auto2.2
Teleop27.1
End0.5
red by 2.6
5654
#16
27.12.0
27.629.6
Auto5.9
Teleop17.0
End4.1
Third
4416
#17
22.60.7
21.821.1
Auto5.7
Teleop13.7
End3.1
blue by 2.6
5928
#21
25.12.0
14.316.4
Auto6.5
Teleop17.0
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
59%Auto oddsMissed58%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
17%Coral oddsMissed54%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
49%Barge oddsMissed41%Barge oddsEarned