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Red132
308329.7
169095.9
194316.1
Blue101
973824.7
1069512.2
474446.2
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1497750100200250132101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+39Teleop
+43Endgame
+31Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave6
7Coral scored#3
34Coral points17
37Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +25
14Coral scored#12
49Coral points44
3Processor algae#1
6Net algae#4
18Processor points6
24Net points16
42Algae points22
91Total teleop66
Reef
7L4#4
5L3#5
6L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
30Game pieces#20
BargeRed +4
4Cage & park0
4Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +31
0Foul points12
132Total score101

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
95.90.5
88.087.4
Auto26.4
Teleop61.7
End7.8
red by 49.7
46.20.0
41.141.1
Auto13.2
Teleop31.6
End1.4
Second
3083
#18
29.70.5
25.525.0
Auto2.2
Teleop27.1
End0.5
red by 5.0
9738
#11
24.70.0
24.024.0
Auto3.9
Teleop18.4
End2.4
Third
1943
#24
16.10.5
17.416.9
Auto4.9
Teleop9.6
End1.5
red by 3.9
12.20.0
12.612.6
Auto3.2
Teleop8.9
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
60%Auto oddsEarned69%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
73%Coral oddsEarned7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
53%Barge oddsMissed40%Barge oddsMissed