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Red131
333958.3
565427.1
321125.5
Blue101
598747.2
592825.1
623014.9
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1178150100150131101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+18Teleop
+28Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave0
5Coral scored#3
27Coral points16
30Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +4
13Coral scored#14
47Coral points51
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
12Processor points12
16Net points8
28Algae points20
75Total teleop71
Reef
7L4#7
5L3#4
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
24Game pieces#21
BargeRed +10
24Cage & park14
24Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
2Foul points0
131Total score101

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.31.4
54.455.8
Auto14.8
Teleop37.2
End6.4
red by 11.2
5987
#10
47.21.2
46.447.7
Auto9.5
Teleop29.3
End8.3
Second
5654
#16
27.11.4
27.228.7
Auto5.9
Teleop17.0
End4.1
red by 2.0
5928
#21
25.11.2
20.621.8
Auto6.5
Teleop17.0
End1.7
Third
3211
#23
25.51.4
23.124.5
Auto4.0
Teleop19.2
End2.3
red by 10.6
6230
#20
14.91.2
13.314.5
Auto4.5
Teleop8.9
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsEarned46%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
43%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
50%Barge oddsEarned59%Barge oddsEarned