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Red110
513523.7
973824.7
157449.2
Blue105
717712.5
599069.9
616816.1
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10110198100102104106108110110105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+3
+9Endgame
+5Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave3
5Coral scored#3
23Coral points17
23Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +6
15Coral scored#14
53Coral points49
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
6Processor points12
12Net points16
18Algae points28
71Total teleop77
Reef
9L4#5
6L3#4
3L2#5
2L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#23
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +5
0Foul points4
110Total score105

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
49.21.2
46.347.5
Auto16.0
Teleop30.0
End3.2
blue by 20.7
69.90.4
63.964.4
Auto17.5
Teleop49.7
End2.7
Second
9738
#11
24.71.2
24.025.1
Auto3.9
Teleop18.4
End2.4
red by 8.6
6168
#27
16.10.4
17.117.5
Auto3.9
Teleop12.0
End0.3
Third
5135
#25
23.71.2
22.423.5
Auto4.0
Teleop17.3
End2.4
red by 11.2
7177
#28
12.50.4
13.514.0
Auto1.0
Teleop9.9
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned63%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed19%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsEarned22%Barge oddsMissed