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Red109
674040.1
308329.7
623014.9
Blue92
459043.7
529126.1
194316.1
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7710320406012014016010992

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+19Teleop
+11Endgame
+17Fouls
Autonomouslevel
6Leave0
2Coral scored#3
10Coral points16
16Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +19
18Coral scored#12
63Coral points44
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
6Processor points6
12Net points12
18Algae points18
81Total teleop62
Reef
9L4#5
6L3#4
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#19
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +17
6Foul points0
109Total score92

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.12.0
35.437.4
Auto8.6
Teleop27.8
End3.7
blue by 3.7
43.70.2
47.347.4
Auto11.4
Teleop27.3
End5.0
Second
3083
#18
29.72.0
23.625.6
Auto2.2
Teleop27.1
End0.5
red by 3.6
5291
#29
26.10.2
25.325.5
Auto4.1
Teleop18.8
End3.3
Third
6230
#20
14.92.0
14.516.4
Auto4.5
Teleop8.9
End1.5
blue by 1.2
1943
#24
16.10.2
17.117.3
Auto4.9
Teleop9.6
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
42%Auto oddsEarned84%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed16%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsMissed51%Barge oddsEarned