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Red191
571540.6
223176.5
223064.3
Blue151
555435.0
458631.9
563543.7
97%Model gave it3%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1589050200250191151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+15
+30Teleop
+40Endgame
+40Fouls
AutonomousBlue +15
6Leave6
3Coral scored#6
17Coral points32
23Total auto38
TeleoperatedRed +45
34Coral scored#19
122Coral points69
1Processor algae#3
4Net algae#3
6Processor points18
16Net points12
22Algae points30
144Total teleop99
Reef
15L4#11
14L3#7
4L2#5
4L1 · trough#2
42Game pieces#31
BargeRed +10
24Cage & park14
24Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +40
0Foul points0
191Total score151

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
76.53.2
59.963.1
Auto19.9
Teleop48.0
End8.6
red by 32.9
43.73.9
40.744.7
Auto10.5
Teleop24.7
End8.5
Second
64.33.2
53.456.6
Auto16.9
Teleop38.1
End9.3
red by 29.3
5554
#14
35.03.9
25.729.6
Auto10.3
Teleop23.4
End1.2
Third
40.63.2
29.432.7
Auto10.0
Teleop27.8
End2.8
red by 8.6
4586
#12
31.93.9
25.829.8
Auto7.5
Teleop22.1
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned75%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
82%Barge oddsEarned28%Barge oddsEarned