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Red101
158010.1
194257.4
974027.3
Blue80
157733.2
529132.3
466115.5
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions769520406012014010180

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+29Teleop
+19Endgame
+21Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
0Leave3
5Coral scored#3
27Coral points13
27Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +18
12Coral scored#10
42Coral points36
3Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
18Processor points6
8Net points8
26Algae points14
68Total teleop50
Reef
6L4#5
5L3#4
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#1
22Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +21
2Foul points0
101Total score80

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.41.5
43.845.4
Auto15.3
Teleop38.1
End3.9
red by 24.2
1577
#29
33.20.5
38.738.3
Auto7.9
Teleop19.6
End5.8
Second
9740
#16
27.31.5
20.622.1
Auto6.8
Teleop18.0
End2.6
blue by 5.0
5291
#15
32.30.5
26.926.5
Auto7.8
Teleop19.2
End5.3
Third
1580
#33
10.11.5
9.010.6
Auto5.2
Teleop4.6
End0.3
blue by 5.4
4661
#26
15.50.5
18.217.8
Auto4.1
Teleop10.4
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
52%Auto oddsEarned71%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed14%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsMissed42%Barge oddsEarned