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Red100
433827.7
338818.4
673822.8
Blue88
595158.0
973917.7
1013917.8
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7710220406012014016018010088

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+40
Endgame+36
+12Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
6Leave6
0Coral scored#3
0Coral points14
6Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +26
6Coral scored#12
20Coral points44
0Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
0Processor points6
8Net points4
8Algae points10
28Total teleop54
Reef
2L4#5
2L3#4
1L2#4
1L1 · trough#2
8Game pieces#17
BargeRed +4
16Cage & park12
16Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
50Foul points2
100Total score88

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4338
#21
27.71.5
24.523.0
Auto4.6
Teleop18.3
End4.9
blue by 30.3
5951
#13
58.00.3
56.155.7
Auto16.1
Teleop32.4
End9.4
Second
6738
#27
22.81.5
24.122.6
Auto7.1
Teleop13.4
End2.4
red by 5.1
17.80.3
16.215.8
Auto7.0
Teleop8.2
End2.6
Third
3388
#10
18.41.5
24.222.7
Auto5.1
Teleop10.3
End3.0
red by 0.7
9739
#30
17.70.3
19.018.6
Auto4.8
Teleop12.4
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
46%Auto oddsMissed65%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
39%Barge oddsEarned72%Barge oddsMissed