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Red139
529132.3
571540.6
194257.4
Blue122
458631.9
817542.0
822335.1
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions139105050150200139122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+31Teleop
+29Endgame
+17Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave9
7Coral scored#4
35Coral points18
44Total auto27
TeleoperatedRed +14
15Coral scored#14
53Coral points49
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
12Processor points6
16Net points12
28Algae points18
81Total teleop67
Reef
8L4#6
7L3#5
3L2#4
4L1 · trough#3
28Game pieces#22
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +17
0Foul points12
139Total score122

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.40.7
56.357.0
Auto15.3
Teleop38.1
End3.9
red by 15.5
8175
#18
42.00.4
39.640.0
Auto8.2
Teleop30.1
End3.6
Second
40.60.7
39.440.1
Auto10.0
Teleop27.8
End2.8
red by 5.4
8223
#19
35.10.4
34.434.8
Auto10.5
Teleop19.8
End4.8
Third
5291
#15
32.30.7
32.933.6
Auto7.8
Teleop19.2
End5.3
red by 0.3
4586
#12
31.90.4
29.329.8
Auto7.5
Teleop22.1
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned74%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
24%Coral oddsMissed17%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
55%Barge oddsEarned53%Barge oddsEarned