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Red170
223064.3
157733.2
703952.6
Blue136
563543.7
595158.0
458631.9
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions157137100200170136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+8Teleop
+28Endgame
+34Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
0Leave3
9Coral scored#8
44Coral points40
44Total auto43
TeleoperatedRed +7
19Coral scored#14
70Coral points49
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#4
6Processor points12
8Net points16
14Algae points28
84Total teleop77
Reef
8L4#10
8L3#4
7L2#6
5L1 · trough#2
31Game pieces#28
BargeRed +20
36Cage & park16
36Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +34
6Foul points0
170Total score136

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.30.3
63.864.2
Auto16.9
Teleop38.1
End9.3
red by 6.3
5951
#13
58.00.1
57.958.0
Auto16.1
Teleop32.4
End9.4
Second
52.60.3
52.252.5
Auto18.0
Teleop26.4
End8.3
red by 9.0
43.70.1
43.643.7
Auto10.5
Teleop24.7
End8.5
Third
1577
#29
33.20.3
32.833.1
Auto7.9
Teleop19.6
End5.8
red by 1.3
4586
#12
31.90.1
31.931.9
Auto7.5
Teleop22.1
End2.3