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Red198
58180.7
752060.2
590760.6
Blue156
366861.5
46164.6
602427.9
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions201150100250300198156

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+25Auto
+40Teleop
+42Endgame
+42Fouls
AutonomousRed +25
0Leave9
11Coral scored#4
55Coral points21
55Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +15
23Coral scored#20
81Coral points72
4Processor algae#5
8Net algae#5
24Processor points30
32Net points20
56Algae points50
137Total teleop122
Reef
14L4#9
9L3#5
6L2#7
5L1 · trough#3
46Game pieces#34
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +42
0Foul points0
198Total score156

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
581
#23
80.70.1
75.875.7
Auto18.9
Teleop53.1
End8.7
red by 16.1
461
#38
64.60.1
62.462.5
Auto18.8
Teleop39.3
End6.4
Second
5907
#12
60.60.1
56.856.8
Auto13.1
Teleop44.7
End2.8
blue by 0.9
3668
#30
61.50.1
57.157.2
Auto14.8
Teleop38.8
End7.9
Third
7520
#25
60.20.1
55.255.1
Auto18.4
Teleop39.8
End2.0
red by 32.3
6024
#52
27.90.1
24.124.2
Auto4.2
Teleop22.3
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
80%Coral oddsEarned37%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
80%Barge oddsMissed65%Barge oddsMissed