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Red187
660622.8
971746.4
11186.7
Blue185
886647.5
494746.7
129663.2
56%Model gave it44%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions160159145150155165170175180185187185

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
+28Teleop
+18Endgame
+2Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
6Leave6
3Coral scored#6
17Coral points31
23Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +42
22Coral scored#19
80Coral points70
5Processor algae#1
7Net algae#5
30Processor points6
28Net points20
58Algae points26
138Total teleop96
Reef
9L4#8
6L3#8
4L2#5
6L1 · trough#4
37Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +10
26Cage & park36
26Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +2
0Foul points16
187Total score185

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
111
#4
86.72.3
82.184.4
Auto19.3
Teleop56.7
End10.7
red by 23.5
1296
#36
63.21.0
55.756.7
Auto8.3
Teleop43.0
End11.9
Second
9717
#48
46.42.3
42.244.6
Auto5.5
Teleop32.7
End8.2
blue by 1.1
8866
#53
47.51.0
41.442.4
Auto10.0
Teleop31.1
End6.3
Third
6606
#64
22.82.3
16.018.3
Auto5.3
Teleop15.1
End2.5
blue by 23.9
4947
#63
46.71.0
46.247.2
Auto8.9
Teleop26.4
End11.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned80%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
29%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
78%Barge oddsEarned97%Barge oddsEarned