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Red158
24558.9
115669.5
494746.7
Blue216
519974.6
113857.3
439850.3
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions182181150160170190200210220158216

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+68
Endgame+58
Fouls+58
AutonomousBlue +4
9Leave6
4Coral scored#6
21Coral points28
30Total auto34
TeleoperatedBlue +64
18Coral scored#31
64Coral points110
2Processor algae#5
4Net algae#4
12Processor points30
16Net points16
28Algae points46
92Total teleop156
Reef
9L4#18
4L3#6
5L2#7
4L1 · trough#6
28Game pieces#46
BargeRed +10
36Cage & park26
36Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +58
0Foul points0
158Total score216

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1156
#24
69.51.0
59.658.6
Auto15.6
Teleop43.1
End10.7
blue by 5.2
5199
#29
74.61.9
69.171.1
Auto13.5
Teleop50.5
End10.7
Second
245
#46
58.91.0
55.054.0
Auto12.9
Teleop39.1
End6.9
red by 1.6
1138
#17
57.31.9
57.359.3
Auto11.4
Teleop37.3
End8.6
Third
4947
#63
46.71.0
47.246.2
Auto8.9
Teleop26.4
End11.4
blue by 3.6
4398
#54
50.31.9
49.251.2
Auto8.4
Teleop39.9
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
58%Coral oddsMissed42%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
92%Barge oddsEarned94%Barge oddsEarned