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Red186
623860.8
439850.3
207358.6
Blue227
803374.6
69576.5
161971.8
11%Model gave it89%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions177239100150200300350186227

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+28
Teleop+33
Endgame+43
Fouls+41
AutonomousBlue +28
6Leave3
5Coral scored#11
24Coral points55
30Total auto58
TeleoperatedBlue +5
31Coral scored#24
110Coral points85
2Processor algae#5
4Net algae#7
12Processor points30
16Net points28
28Algae points58
138Total teleop143
Reef
14L4#14
11L3#9
6L2#6
5L1 · trough#6
42Game pieces#47
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +41
2Foul points0
186Total score227

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6238
#44
60.80.7
56.457.1
Auto9.9
Teleop42.7
End8.2
blue by 15.7
695
#16
76.50.2
75.074.8
Auto20.9
Teleop47.2
End8.4
Second
2073
#57
58.60.7
55.356.0
Auto11.7
Teleop38.4
End8.5
blue by 16.0
8033
#43
74.60.2
76.075.8
Auto19.0
Teleop46.8
End8.7
Third
4398
#54
50.30.7
50.150.9
Auto8.4
Teleop39.9
End2.1
blue by 21.4
71.80.2
68.167.9
Auto15.1
Teleop47.6
End9.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
38%Coral oddsEarned88%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
72%Barge oddsEarned96%Barge oddsEarned