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Red175
784045.3
519974.6
494746.7
Blue173
331479.8
205476.6
56424.1
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17619850100150250300350175173

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+8
+2Endgame
+2Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave9
9Coral scored#8
44Coral points42
44Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +1
14Coral scored#17
51Coral points62
4Processor algae#3
5Net algae#4
24Processor points18
20Net points16
44Algae points34
95Total teleop96
Reef
7L4#9
9L3#7
5L2#6
2L1 · trough#3
32Game pieces#32
BargeRed +10
36Cage & park26
36Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +2
0Foul points0
175Total score173

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5199
#29
74.60.4
75.976.4
Auto13.5
Teleop50.5
End10.7
blue by 5.2
3314
#13
79.80.4
81.280.8
Auto19.1
Teleop47.7
End13.1
Second
4947
#63
46.70.4
48.548.9
Auto8.9
Teleop26.4
End11.4
blue by 29.9
2054
#50
76.60.4
75.575.1
Auto23.4
Teleop44.5
End8.8
Third
7840
#60
45.30.4
44.044.4
Auto9.4
Teleop29.3
End6.6
red by 21.2
564
#74
24.10.4
21.621.3
Auto3.1
Teleop16.5
End4.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
20%Coral oddsMissed28%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
98%Barge oddsEarned90%Barge oddsEarned