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Red196
861347.4
590760.6
68657.8
Blue206
815964.4
34243.8
113857.3
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions176168120140160200220240260196206

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+10Teleop
Endgame+10
Fouls+10
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave3
6Coral scored#7
30Coral points34
30Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +17
30Coral scored#24
108Coral points87
3Processor algae#3
6Net algae#7
18Processor points18
24Net points28
42Algae points46
150Total teleop133
Reef
14L4#13
12L3#9
6L2#5
4L1 · trough#4
45Game pieces#41
BargeBlue +20
16Cage & park36
16Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
0Foul points0
196Total score206

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5907
#12
60.61.6
58.960.5
Auto13.1
Teleop44.7
End2.8
blue by 3.8
8159
#19
64.42.4
57.159.5
Auto16.0
Teleop43.2
End5.2
Second
686
#37
57.81.6
52.954.5
Auto9.2
Teleop42.7
End5.9
red by 0.5
1138
#17
57.32.4
56.959.3
Auto11.4
Teleop37.3
End8.6
Third
8613
#67
47.41.6
49.050.5
Auto6.4
Teleop34.2
End6.8
red by 3.6
342
#61
43.82.4
44.747.1
Auto5.7
Teleop33.5
End4.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned90%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
39%Coral oddsEarned26%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
74%Barge oddsEarned75%Barge oddsEarned