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Red127
373954.7
58926.2
516665.4
Blue123
942742.1
164861.0
1021335.0
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions161149100200250127123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+8
+4Endgame
+4Fouls
Autonomouslevel
9Leave9
3Coral scored#3
14Coral points14
23Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +8
18Coral scored#19
66Coral points70
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#3
12Processor points12
8Net points12
20Algae points24
86Total teleop94
Reef
8L4#7
6L3#5
4L2#5
3L1 · trough#5
25Game pieces#27
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +4
2Foul points2
127Total score123

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5166
#18
65.41.3
62.661.4
Auto13.6
Teleop39.2
End12.6
red by 4.4
1648
#39
61.01.3
62.361.0
Auto12.2
Teleop40.3
End8.5
Second
3739
#33
54.71.3
54.853.5
Auto8.1
Teleop42.9
End3.7
red by 12.6
9427
#68
42.11.3
41.840.5
Auto9.3
Teleop29.8
End3.0
Third
589
#62
26.21.3
26.325.1
Auto3.2
Teleop15.5
End7.6
blue by 8.7
35.01.3
36.735.4
Auto7.8
Teleop25.9
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
26%Coral oddsMissed15%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
96%Barge oddsEarned73%Barge oddsMissed