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Red131
44726.6
278358.1
95549.2
Blue62
649814.3
75164.5
172031.3
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12051010015020013162

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+47Teleop
+55Endgame
+69Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave0
5Coral scored#2
24Coral points9
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +26
13Coral scored#6
47Coral points21
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
61Total teleop35
Reef
7L4#2
3L3#3
4L2#2
4L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#11
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +69
26Foul points12
131Total score62

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.10.1
57.257.4
Auto17.8
Teleop30.8
End9.4
red by 26.7
1720
#11
31.30.7
30.529.7
Auto6.0
Teleop19.2
End6.1
Second
447
#5
26.60.1
30.831.0
Auto6.5
Teleop16.2
End3.9
red by 12.4
6498
#17
14.30.7
21.320.5
Auto1.6
Teleop11.6
End1.1
Third
9554
#16
9.20.1
12.212.3
Auto2.7
Teleop6.0
End0.5
red by 4.6
7516
#18
4.50.7
6.15.4
Auto3.5
Teleop0.9
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
60%Auto oddsEarned33%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
65%Barge oddsEarned44%Barge oddsMissed