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Red80
75164.5
549232.7
146634.3
Blue59
172031.3
95549.2
55423.6
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions65680501001502008059

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+21Teleop
+31Endgame
+21Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
9Leave0
3Coral scored#3
17Coral points16
26Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +11
8Coral scored#5
28Coral points17
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
38Total teleop27
Reef
4L4#3
3L3#1
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
13Game pieces#10
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +21
2Foul points12
80Total score59

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
34.30.8
29.630.5
Auto11.1
Teleop20.8
End2.4
red by 3.0
1720
#11
31.31.2
31.430.2
Auto6.0
Teleop19.2
End6.1
Second
5492
#10
32.70.8
33.033.9
Auto4.4
Teleop20.3
End7.9
red by 9.1
554
#15
23.61.2
21.520.3
Auto7.8
Teleop11.3
End4.5
Third
7516
#18
4.50.8
2.73.5
Auto3.5
Teleop0.9
End0.1
blue by 4.6
9554
#16
9.21.2
11.810.6
Auto2.7
Teleop6.0
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
43%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsEarned41%Barge oddsMissed