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Red177
174738.2
602335.3
278358.1
Blue40
548414.8
99862.1
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15745010020025017740

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+95Teleop
+119Endgame
+137Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
9Leave3
4Coral scored#1
21Coral points3
30Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +71
21Coral scored#8
77Coral points28
1Processor algae#0
5Net algae#1
6Processor points0
20Net points4
26Algae points4
103Total teleop32
Reef
8L4#3
7L3#3
6L2#2
4L1 · trough#1
31Game pieces#10
BargeRed +24
26Cage & park2
26Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +137
18Foul points0
177Total score40

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.10.8
56.757.5
Auto17.8
Teleop30.8
End9.4
red by 43.2
14.80.3
19.819.6
Auto3.6
Teleop10.6
End0.6
Second
38.20.8
34.935.7
Auto4.7
Teleop25.8
End7.6
red by 28.7
9.40.3
11.311.1
Auto5.1
Teleop3.4
End1.0
Third
6023
#13
35.30.8
37.638.4
Auto6.3
Teleop28.6
End0.4
red by 33.2
9986
#20
2.10.4
0.80.3
Auto0.3
Teleop-0.7
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsEarned59%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
22%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
77%Barge oddsEarned27%Barge oddsMissed