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Red61
361635.8
940518.2
222117.7
Blue26
215221.9
976821.2
94358.7
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions72480204060801001206126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+29Teleop
+29Endgame
+35Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
6Leave3
2Coral scored#1
11Coral points3
17Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +18
6Coral scored#3
22Coral points10
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
6Processor points0
4Net points4
10Algae points4
32Total teleop14
Reef
3L4#1
2L3#1
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#5
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +35
6Foul points0
61Total score26

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3616
#26
35.80.6
25.224.6
Auto7.5
Teleop26.2
End2.1
red by 14.0
2152
#52
21.91.3
18.116.8
Auto2.7
Teleop16.5
End2.6
Second
9405
#30
18.20.6
16.515.9
Auto3.7
Teleop10.7
End3.7
blue by 3.0
9768
#45
21.22.0
15.413.4
Auto3.7
Teleop15.6
End2.0
Third
2221
#34
17.70.6
15.615.0
Auto3.9
Teleop10.6
End3.2
red by 9.0
9435
#51
8.71.5
7.56.0
Auto3.0
Teleop4.8
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
26%Auto oddsEarned16%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsMissed23%Barge oddsMissed