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Red40
648923.8
945614.2
915324.2
Blue57
966016.9
709423.9
931318.1
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions695702040801001201404057

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+15
Endgame+15
Fouls+17
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave9
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +12
7Coral scored#7
26Coral points24
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#3
0Processor points6
4Net points12
4Algae points18
30Total teleop42
Reef
3L4#3
2L3#2
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
9Game pieces#11
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +17
0Foul points2
40Total score57

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9153
#33
24.22.5
21.819.2
Auto6.0
Teleop17.7
End0.5
red by 0.2
7094
#22
23.90.4
21.321.0
Auto3.6
Teleop17.0
End3.3
Second
6489
#43
23.83.5
17.814.3
Auto3.3
Teleop15.2
End5.2
red by 5.6
9313
#32
18.10.4
12.412.0
Auto3.5
Teleop12.9
End1.8
Third
9456
#46
14.23.5
16.613.1
Auto4.0
Teleop9.4
End0.9
blue by 2.6
9660
#29
16.90.4
13.312.9
Auto3.5
Teleop9.1
End4.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
57%Auto oddsMissed20%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
27%Barge oddsMissed28%Barge oddsMissed