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Red95
215221.9
931318.1
501336.5
Blue125
191245.8
181811.5
346831.8
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7890406010012014016095125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
Teleop+24
Endgame+32
Fouls+30
AutonomousBlue +11
0Leave0
3Coral scored#5
16Coral points27
16Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +13
15Coral scored#16
53Coral points58
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#5
6Processor points6
12Net points20
18Algae points26
71Total teleop84
Reef
8L4#11
5L3#4
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
22Game pieces#27
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +30
2Foul points0
95Total score125

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5013
#18
36.50.6
33.834.4
Auto6.1
Teleop29.3
End1.1
blue by 9.3
1912
#16
45.81.9
42.344.3
Auto8.4
Teleop34.5
End2.8
Second
2152
#52
21.90.6
18.719.3
Auto2.7
Teleop16.5
End2.6
blue by 10.0
3468
#11
31.81.9
29.231.2
Auto6.2
Teleop21.5
End4.1
Third
9313
#32
18.10.6
16.517.1
Auto3.5
Teleop12.9
End1.8
red by 6.6
1818
#50
11.53.0
7.910.9
Auto2.2
Teleop7.4
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
29%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsMissed27%Barge oddsEarned