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Red86
433637.3
610722.1
208016.4
Blue116
299256.4
1049726.7
878823.8
16%Model gave it84%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8112305010015020086116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+32
Endgame+30
Fouls+30
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave3
3Coral scored#3
16Coral points16
16Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +29
11Coral scored#13
38Coral points47
2Processor algae#4
4Net algae#6
12Processor points24
16Net points24
28Algae points48
66Total teleop95
Reef
5L4#7
4L3#5
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#1
20Game pieces#26
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +30
0Foul points0
86Total score116

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4336
#38
37.31.0
35.536.5
Auto4.8
Teleop30.9
End1.6
blue by 19.1
2992
#10
56.41.2
51.552.7
Auto11.6
Teleop42.6
End2.2
Second
6107
#13
22.11.0
20.121.1
Auto5.0
Teleop14.1
End2.9
blue by 4.6
26.71.9
24.826.6
Auto2.5
Teleop22.8
End1.3
Third
2080
#40
16.41.0
15.116.1
Auto4.1
Teleop9.0
End3.2
blue by 7.5
8788
#27
23.81.2
21.722.9
Auto4.3
Teleop18.1
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
49%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed27%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
49%Barge oddsMissed23%Barge oddsMissed